Irish Unification Plebiscite Must Not Become 'A Sequel to Brexit', Commentators Warn

A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.

Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."